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"Not a chance"? Trav, trav, trav. You of all people know these things have a mind of their own regardless of what all conditions point they "should" do. We'll see who is right next week.
Question:
Years ago didn't they used to fly into the eyes of hurricanes and spread dry ice into the eye and that had an effect on it's strength? I remember seeing a film about that in grade school in science class. If so, wonder why that is no longer done? Or what was the purpose in the first place?
<font color="#000002" size="1">[ September 03, 2004 09:58 AM: Message edited by: G L ]</font>
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Trav, you should work for the weather stations here in town. Hell, they're wrong 95% of the time anyway. You couldn't be any worse! [img]wink.gif[/img] [img]tongue.gif[/img]
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If you click on the AP link I put up, you'll see that it gives updated stories as the day goes on or at least daily.
It's down to a category 3 right now, but that's still a heavy duty storm and may buikd back up to a 4 by landfall.
Looks lik they are predicting it to hit a little further north but still near the ceter of Floridas East Coast.
Hang on tight GL!
Get yous supplies and do what you gotta do.
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11:00 Am update:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...F/031453W5.gif
WTNT41 KNHC 031446
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL OF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS. HOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
FRANCES IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FORCING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN ON ITS WAY TO FLORIDA. THIS COULD DELAY THE LANDFALL A FEW MORE HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.
FORECASTER AVILA
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Last projection had it crossing the state and going into the Gulf, so it has already been shifted north x northeast slightly.
At its current path projection I may get 20" of rain by this time Monday. So....tonight I'm taking all the books on the lower shelves and putting them up higher and unplugging any extension cords I have in the library. (for different lamps)
And hope for the best. The flooding doesn't overly concern me. High winds worry me more.
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what amazes me is how beautiful a beach can be before a hurricane, turns into hell and everything (manmade at least) is destroyed. 2 days after it passes you would never have guessed it was there, the sun is bright and the sky is blue again. A lot of palm trees withstand the forces too because they bend so much. I saw pics of damage from Charley where solid structures were wiped out and a palm tree next to it unscathed.
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Hee's the view from GL's home county for the rest of us so we can keep up to the minute on this.
PINELLAS COUNTY
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I live in the western section of Pinellas Park which is to the southwest corner of the county. Of the whole county my neighborhood is one of the safest at present based on the current track of the eye of the storm.northeast Tampa may get hit hard. We got an email this morning to unplug our computers at the end of the day today and cover them with a trash bag. Not allowed to turn them on again Tuesday either until they verify our network was unaffected. We could have broken windows here in this office tower in Tampa. But my office is in the southwest corner of Tampa too so that's better than being on the east side of town.
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Say goodby to the space suttles.
http://image.weather.com/images/maps...p1_720x486.jpg
<font color="#000002" size="1">[ September 03, 2004 04:24 PM: Message edited by: travelinman ]</font>
